Satellite IoT revenue will soar, marking a fundamental shift in how telecom and IoT players approach connectivity. As satellite and terrestrial networks become more integrated, traditional wholesale models are giving way to flexible, standards-based partnerships. This transformation is set to redefine monetization strategies across mobile operators, platforms, and IoT providers. It matters because the new satellite landscape could reshape pricing, security, and global coverage — unlocking vast opportunities across industries.

“What we’re seeing is more and more enterprises adopting these solutions, obviously paying more,” says Sam Barker, VP of Telecoms Market Research at Juniper Research. “That’s going to be one of the biggest drivers of why this market is going to double over the next few years.” According to Juniper, satellite IoT revenue will grow from $2.9 billion in 2024 to $5.8 billion by 2027. Direct-to-cell models, enabled by expanding low Earth orbit (LEO) constellations and 3GPP standards, are projected to generate $2.8 billion by 2028. Myriota’s recent launch of 16 new satellites and deals like KPN-Skylo, which utilize Release 17 standards, are accelerating hybrid adoption. Meanwhile, wholesale roaming revenue is also set to double, nearing $2 billion — a clear signal that roaming agreements and standardization are becoming critical.

“Roaming is obviously a standards-based market,” Barker explains. “Interoperability is key — and with satellites and non-terrestrial networks, standards will play a key role in ensuring a connection can roam onto any network with some form of agreement.” This reliance on global standards, including the newly emerging SGP.32 for eSIM provisioning, reflects a growing need for seamless integration. But despite technical progress, challenges remain: fragmented security frameworks and regulatory barriers continue to slow deployment in some markets.

In this wide-ranging interview, Barker also explores where mobile carriers, CPaaS vendors, and IoT platforms should focus their strategies — emphasizing that “flexibility is going to be key to growing satellite revenue.” From modular product design to adaptive pricing models, the winners in this next wave will be those who can tailor connectivity to diverse, evolving use cases.

You can listen to the full podcast by clicking the dedicated section on this page. What follows below is a condensed version of the Perspectives conversation with the Juniper Research analyst.

MEF:
Juniper Research predicts global satellite IoT revenue will grow from $2.9B in 2024 to $5.8B by 2027. What’s driving this?

Sam Barker:
The satellite IoT market is still young. Early use cases like emergency services had limited revenue potential. Now, industries like manufacturing are adopting satellite solutions, especially as they get bundled with terrestrial networks. Satellite services are no longer siloed; integration and service packaging are boosting enterprise uptake and revenue.

MEF:
The KPN–Skylo deal using 3GPP Release 17 (NTN) suggests a hybrid model. Is this a new template for telcos?

Sam Barker:
It’s a promising step, though still early days. Launching and managing satellites is costly for telcos, so partnerships are key. We’ll see more of these, especially as 6G develops. While consumers may not want to pay more, enterprise IoT will be the main revenue source.

MEF:
Myriota expanded its LEO constellation via SPIRE. What does this mean for smaller IoT satellite players?

Sam Barker:
LEO satellites offer lower latency and are cheaper to launch, making them ideal for smaller players. The market is shifting from competing on satellite numbers to software capabilities. More modular, software-defined satellites let smaller firms deliver flexible, cost-effective services, either directly or via partnerships.

MEF:
So satellite quality and flexibility matter more than quantity?

Sam Barker:
Exactly. Hardware is becoming standardized, so the edge will come from smarter, software-based solutions.

MEF:
Juniper forecasts wholesale IoT roaming revenue nearing $2B. How important are standards like 3GPP and SGP32?

Sam Barker:
Standards are crucial, especially with satellite and terrestrial networks merging. SGP32, for example, enables remote eSIM provisioning—essential for large-scale deployments like U.S. super farms. Interoperability ensures seamless roaming across networks.

MEF:
Your research shows direct-to-cell (D2C) revenue could reach $2.8B by 2028. Will this disrupt wholesale models?

Sam Barker:
Not disrupt—enhance. Operators control the D2C ecosystem and can monetize it through revenue-sharing or usage-based models. While early on, terrestrial networks will remain dominant. But as satellite tech matures, it will boost the wholesale model rather than replace it.

MEF:
What about security? More satellites and networks mean more risks.

Sam Barker:
Definitely. More connections increase the attack surface. The key isn’t new security models, but collaboration. Satellite operators must adopt telecom security standards. Since operators handle billing and customer trust, users will expect consistent security—satellite networks need to meet those expectations.

MEF:
Are regulations helping or hindering satellite IoT adoption?

Sam Barker:
Both. National telecom regulators operate by country, which complicates things for satellite constellations covering multiple nations. The ITU plays a global role in spectrum management, but aligning terrestrial and satellite spectrum remains a challenge. Fewer regulations might speed growth, but oversight is necessary to avoid interference.

MEF:
In the U.S., there’s concern about cutting funding for space traffic coordination. Thoughts?

Sam Barker:
While I can’t speak to U.S. politics specifically, regulation and coordination are vital. Lack of it can slow growth, but it’s also essential for safe and fair use of space and spectrum.

MEF:
With wholesale pricing under pressure, are current models sustainable?

Sam Barker:
In some areas, yes. Others are becoming commoditized. There’s room for innovation—tiered or quality-based pricing, usage-based models, and dynamic pricing are all emerging. APIs are also enabling real-time, on-demand satellite access, which opens new monetization paths.

MEF:
Which sector offers the highest return for satellite wholesale partnerships?

Sam Barker:
Broadband, due to its massive addressable market. It’s the easiest win for operators.

MEF:
Do you expect industry consolidation?

Sam Barker:
Not consolidation, but more collaboration—especially in sharing infrastructure and resources, depending on demand and existing networks.